Silverado EV vs Gas F-150: 5-Year Cost Math After Ford's BEV Pivot (2026)

Ford ended production of the all-electric F-150 Lightning in late 2025. The nameplate is not dead — Ford is replacing it with an extended-range plug-in hybrid (EREV) Lightning and launching a new sub-$30,000 midsize EV called the Fathom — but the era of Ford making a full-size battery-electric truck is, for now, over.

That leaves the 2027 Chevy Silverado EV as the only full-size battery-electric pickup from a major American automaker. CarsDirect's September 2026 order guide confirmed the 4WT Work Truck trim starts at $53,200, a $400 increase from 2026 and the most affordable full-size BEV truck available. The Cybertruck ($74,990), GMC Sierra EV ($62,400), and Rivian R1T ($79,990) all cost considerably more.

So: does the Silverado EV make sense against a gas F-150 XLT at today's national average of $4.329/gallon (AAA, September 15, 2026)? We ran the 5-year total cost of ownership in two real-world scenarios, using grounded September 2026 data.

One Caveat Before the Numbers

The 2027 Silverado EV 4WT is primarily a fleet and commercial vehicle. General Motors allocates most 4WT production to business buyers. Retail truck shoppers typically start at the 1LT or 2LT trims, which run significantly higher — the 2026 Silverado EV 2LT started at $67,595. GM has not yet published 2027 retail pricing. We use the 4WT here because it is the only confirmed 2027 figure, and it makes for a fair cost-comparison floor. If you are a retail buyer, expect the actual EV premium to be larger than what you see in the commuter scenario below.

Similarly, EPA efficiency ratings for the 2027 Silverado EV have not been published as of this writing. We use the 2026 4WT EPA combined rating as the proxy: approximately 94 MPGe / 2.8 miles per kWh.

The Two Trucks

• 2027 Silverado EV 4WT: $53,200 MSRP / 94 MPGe estimated (2026 proxy) / ~450-mile range / 10,000 lb towing capacity
• 2026 F-150 XLT (2.7L EcoBoost, 4WD): $44,695 MSRP / 19 MPG combined (EPA) / 11,100 lb max tow

The Silverado EV costs $8,505 more at the dealer. With the federal EV tax credit gone since September 2025, that gap stays. The question is whether 5 years of lower fuel and maintenance costs close it.

The Numbers: Scenario 1 — Commuter (15,000 Miles/Year, 90% Home Charging)

This is the scenario where EVs do best: predictable daily driving, charging at home overnight, rarely using a public fast charger. National average residential electricity is 18.34 cents/kWh per the EIA Electric Power Monthly (June 2026). We blend in 10% public DCFC usage at $0.35/kWh for a realistic effective rate of about 20.0 cents/kWh.

The Silverado EV wins the commuter scenario by $1,338 over five years. The margin is thin, and it rests on two big assumptions: 55% EV truck depreciation and 40% gas truck depreciation (from iSeeCars 2026 resale value data). If EV truck values hold better than expected, the EV advantage grows. If they crater further, the gas truck wins.

The fuel math is the headline: at $4.33/gallon, a gas F-150 burns through $17,080 in fuel over five years at 15,000 miles/year. The Silverado EV's electricity costs $5,360 — a savings of $11,720 that nearly offsets the entire purchase price gap and extra depreciation.

The Numbers: Scenario 2 — Tower (Mixed Towing, 50% Home / 50% DCFC)

Towing changes the picture for EVs. The Silverado EV's range drops roughly 40–50% under a heavy load. A truck that does 450 miles unloaded may cover only 225–270 miles while pulling a trailer. That forces more DCFC stops, which cost more per kWh. We modeled a buyer who tows moderately 40% of the time (job sites, boat, camper), with efficiency dropping to ~1.6 miles/kWh while towing.

Under these conditions, the EV's energy costs jump from $5,360 to $9,290 over five years. But gas consumption also rises — a loaded F-150 at 12 MPG burns through significantly more gallons. Both trucks get more expensive to fuel when towing heavy.

The Silverado EV also wins the towing scenario — by $1,408. The reason: gas trucks get hit harder by heavy loads per gallon than EVs do per kWh. Even at 50% DCFC usage, the EV's fuel cost ($9,290) remains well below the gas truck ($21,080) when towing frequently.

The practical warning about towing is real, but it is a range problem, not a cost problem. If your haul runs 300 miles with no charging station on the route, that is a genuine constraint. If you are doing shorter or regional towing where charging infrastructure is accessible, the Silverado EV handles the economics better than most assume.

The Depreciation Variable Is the Whole Game

The EV wins in both scenarios above, but the margin is narrow enough that a single assumption can flip the outcome. That assumption is depreciation.

EV trucks have been hit hard. The F-150 Lightning's used market value dropped dramatically in 2024–2025 as initial enthusiasm cooled. 2026 resale data from iSeeCars puts EV truck 5-year depreciation at 55–65%. Gas trucks — especially the F-150 — retain value exceptionally well at 35–50% loss over five years.

At 15,000 miles/year with $4.33 gas, the EV needs to depreciate less than 65% or the gas truck wins. Here is the sensitivity:

• EV depreciation 55%, gas 40%: EV wins commuter by $1,338 ✓
• EV depreciation 65%, gas 40%: Gas wins commuter by $4,060
• EV depreciation 55%, gas 35%: Gas wins commuter by $1,005

If you plan to keep the Silverado EV for 7–10 years, depreciation becomes a sunk cost. Fuel and maintenance savings compound — the longer you hold, the more the math favors the EV. For 3–5 year ownership, depreciation is the decisive variable.

The Mileage Breakeven

At lower mileage, gas wins. The Silverado EV's fuel savings require enough miles to recover its higher upfront cost. Running the math at 12,000 miles/year (commuter scenario), the gas F-150 wins by about $1,000. At 15,000 miles/year, the EV wins by $1,338.

The breakeven is approximately 13,300 miles/year under current conditions ($4.33/gallon, 18.34¢/kWh, 55% EV depreciation). Drive more than that, the EV comes out ahead over five years. Drive less, and the lower sticker price of the gas truck wins.

The national average for full-size pickup owners is closer to 14,000–15,000 miles/year, which puts most truck buyers right at or above the breakeven threshold.

How State Incentives Change the Math

The federal 30D EV credit expired September 30, 2025, under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. But state incentives remain in place in several states, and they can shift the outcome meaningfully:

• Colorado ($5,000 state credit): EV net commuter cost drops to $44,120 vs. gas $50,458 — EV wins by $6,338
• California (MyFirstEV, $3,500 for qualifying buyers): Silverado EV typically exceeds MSRP caps for state programs, but check California's current incentive table
• Connecticut ($1,500 rebate): EV wins by $2,838 in the commuter scenario
• Texas, Florida, most southern states (no state EV credit): EV wins by the baseline $1,338 — tight

If you are in Colorado, Washington, or any state with a meaningful EV credit, the math tips decisively toward the Silverado EV even at moderate mileage.

The Gas Price Wildcard

Gas at $4.33/gallon is already high by historical standards, but the Silverado EV's advantage grows quickly with higher prices:

• $4.33/gallon (current national avg): EV wins commuter by $1,338
• $5.00/gallon: EV wins by ~$6,700
• $3.50/gallon: Gas wins by ~$3,400

At $4.33/gallon, the Silverado EV's edge is real but fragile. Gas prices would need to fall sustainably to $3.50 or below — unlikely unless there's a major demand shock — to make the F-150 decisively cheaper to operate.

What Ford's Exit Actually Means

Ford's decision to end the BEV Lightning is worth understanding. The Lightning was an impressive truck that struggled commercially: battery costs stayed high, EV demand growth slowed, and the fleet of used Lightnings built up quickly from early adopters exiting. Ford is not abandoning electrification — it is pivoting to EREV (plug-in hybrid with 40+ miles electric range), which eliminates range anxiety for towing while still delivering meaningful fuel savings.

That EREV Lightning will be a serious competitor to the Silverado EV when it arrives in 2027. For now, the Silverado EV is the only full-size BEV truck in the market, which means no competitive pressure on pricing. Check our earlier F-150 Lightning vs F-150 comparison for the historical baseline on how the all-electric Lightning stacked up before production ended.

The Bottom Line

At September 2026 prices — $4.33/gallon gas, 18.34¢/kWh electricity — the 2027 Silverado EV 4WT beats a gas F-150 XLT on 5-year net cost by roughly $1,300–$1,400 in both commuter and moderate-towing scenarios. That margin is thin. It depends on EV depreciation landing at 55% (not the worst-case 65%), and it assumes roughly 15,000 miles/year.

Below 13,300 miles/year, gas wins. In states with meaningful EV credits (Colorado, Connecticut, Washington), EV wins by a wider margin. If you are a retail buyer looking at the Silverado EV 2LT instead of the fleet-focused 4WT, the price gap with a gas F-150 XLT is nearly $23,000 — and the EV math does not close that cleanly over five years.

The Silverado EV is the right truck for daily-use buyers who drive 14,000+ miles/year, have home charging, and live in a state with any meaningful EV incentive. For buyers who tow heavy loads over long distances, or who change trucks every 2–3 years and care about resale, the gas F-150 XLT remains the cheaper truck at current prices.

For a broader look at the full cost stack, see our EV total cost of ownership guide.